EUR/GBP Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

Key events of the dayToday, the markets' attention is focused on the preliminary business activity indices (PMI) for April in the eurozone, the United States and the United Kingdom. These data will be the first indicator of the impact of uncertainty related to trade tariffs. In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 48.2 from the previous level of 48.6, due to a drop in new orders from the United States. At the same time, the index in the service sector is likely to remain stable at around 51.0. Despite the fact that the PMI is usually less sensitive to sentiment, the risks of a negative effect still remain.In the United States, a similar dynamic is expected: a decline in industrial activity against the backdrop of gloomy data from the Philadelphia Fed index published last week. The service sector is expected to hold its position unless increased uncertainty begins to put pressure on consumption. However, March retail sales showed resilience, which reduces risks.Economic developments in AsiaIn Japan, the April PMIs showed mixed results. The manufacturing index continued to decline for the tenth month in a row, dropping to 48.5, partly due to concerns about U.S. tariffs. The service sector, on the contrary, grew to 52.2, driven by increased customer demand and the largest increase in sales over the past three months. Pressure on prices has increased: companies are recording the fastest cost growth in two years, leading to higher product prices. The composite index returned to the expansion zone, rising to 51.1 from 48.9 in March.Economic developments in the USAThe index of manufacturing activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond deteriorated in April to -13 from -4 in March. The shipment component decreased to -17, which, together with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, signals a clear deterioration in the industrial situation. The effect of pre-accumulation of orders in the first quarter is being replaced by a slowdown due to increasing uncertainty.In the political arena, President Trump has eased pressure on the Fed, saying there are no plans to fire Jerome Powell. This led to a decrease in the probability of his resignation in the markets from 21% to 13%, supporting a positive mood among investors, strengthening the dollar and sending gold into a downward correction. Prior to Trump's statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant also described the trade war with China as "unsustainable," which gave an additional boost to asset growth. At the same time, Trump expressed cautious optimism about the deal with China, noting that tariffs would eventually be "significantly lower" but not reduced to zero.Events in EuropeIn the eurozone, the consumer confidence index dropped to -16.7 in April, which is the lowest level since November 2023. The decline is mainly due to the effects of the trade war and falling stock markets. So far, this deterioration has not been reflected in real data — retail sales in the United States in March, as well as transaction data in Denmark, remain strong. Thus, the decrease in confidence so far looks more like an emotional reaction to external factors.According to the quarterly survey of the European Central Bank among professional forecasters, inflation expectations have slightly increased, and economic growth forecasts have been slightly revised downwards. However, the changes turned out to be insignificant, indicating moderate expectations of further consequences of the trade war. The next round of forecasts may be less optimistic due to the escalation of tariff conflicts between the United States and China in April.International trade and macroeconomicsTrade disputes remain in the spotlight: The International Monetary Fund has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025, noting particularly significant declines for the United States and China. The main threats are the further escalation of trade wars and the tightening of financial conditions.The situation in SwedenAn unexpected improvement was recorded in the Swedish labor market: the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in March from 8.9% in February. At the same time, employment growth was higher than expected, and the increase in the workforce was in line with forecasts. However, risks of deterioration remain in the event of escalating tariff conflicts and turbulence in the stock markets.Geopolitical newsProgress has been made in relations between Russia and Ukraine. According to media reports, Russia offered to stop the offensive on the current front lines, and Ukraine expressed its readiness for negotiations after the establishment of a ceasefire.The raw materials marketOil prices have strengthened amid the introduction of new US sanctions against Iranian oil exports, as well as due to improved market sentiment following the softening of US rhetoric towards China. A barrel of Brent costs about $68 in the morning.Stock marketsGlobal stock markets showed solid growth, offsetting the drop at the beginning of the week. Cyclical stocks outpaced defensive sectors in growth. Bond yields declined, and the dollar strengthened. Major US indexes closed in positive territory: Dow +2.7%, S&P 500 +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.7% and Russell 2000 +2.7%. The positive mood remains for the morning in Asia, as well as on European and American futures.Debt market and foreign exchange marketThe weakening of Trump's rhetoric towards the Fed chairman and trade negotiations with China contributed to the relief in financial markets. Today's PMI releases will be an important indicator of the current state of the global economy and will play a key role in further decisions by central ...

Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...

Focus on Germany: ZEW Sentiment index and expectationsToday, the key event on the European macroeconomic agenda will be the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany for March. According to the consensus forecast, the index value may drop significantly to 9.5 points, which is likely due to the ongoing turbulence in global trade and weak readings of economic indicators in the region. Recall that in February, the indicator of current economic conditions unexpectedly rose to 51.6 after a January jump from 26.0, ending a six-month downward trend. This time, the market expects only a slight improvement in the current estimate, to -86.8 from -87.6 last month.Sweden's spring budget: no market effectIn Sweden, the spring revision of the state budget will be presented at 8:00 Central European time. The main parameters of the project are already known: the volume of reforms is 11.5 billion crowns, while the central initiative will be the extension of tax benefits for housing repairs. Earlier in March, the government announced plans for a long-term increase in defense spending, but the final targets for them will be formed only in June, after the NATO summit, and they will not be included in the current budget version. For this reason, the impact of the document on financial markets will be minimal.United Kingdom: labor market dataAt 8:00 a.m., the UK will publish the employment report for February-March. Although this event traditionally has an impact on the pound, the current market agenda is focused on trade conflicts and interest rate policy, so the reaction to the publication may be limited.Overall market picture: cautious optimism amid tariff uncertaintyThe main attention of market participants remains focused on the escalation of tariff disputes. In the United States, Fed member Christopher Waller made a mild comment, noting that in the face of a significant slowdown in the economy due to high tariffs, he would support an earlier and large-scale rate cut. His words are especially important, given that Waller often reflects a consensus opinion within the FOMC.In China, exports increased by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding expectations (4.4%). However, given the upcoming tariff policy changes, these data are temporary. In April, we can expect a sharp decline in shipments, especially towards the United States. Against this background, the global trade picture remains uncertain.Financial markets: cautious recovery in risk appetiteStocks on global markets showed growth on Monday amid hopes that the peak of the tariff war may have already passed. European securities outperformed American ones, and defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones in terms of profitability for the third day in a row – a clear signal that investors are becoming more selective and are beginning to take into account structural risks.On Wall Street, all key indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 gained 0.8% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 1.1%. Positive sentiment prevailed in Asia on Tuesday, with European futures also showing growth.Dollar, Euro and yields: EUR/USD recoveryAfter falling to the level of 1.1300, the EUR/USD currency pair regained momentum amid easing concerns about the recession in the United States and signs of flexibility in the tariff policy of the White House. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also showed growth following the stock indexes. In Europe, yields on two-year swaps dropped below 2%, reflecting a general shift towards a soft policy. US government bond yields also declined, partly due to Waller's comments, which focused on the possible reaction of the Fed in the event of a slowdown in the labor market.Today, special attention will be paid to the "tax day" in the United States – the date when the maximum inflow of funds to the budget traditionally occurs, which can affect the short-term liquidity and dynamics of treasury ...

Escalation of the tariff war: the US and China continue their confrontationFinancial markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as investors closely monitor further actions by US President Donald Trump as part of the ongoing tariff confrontation. At the moment, most countries face a 10% duty on a wide range of exported goods, as well as a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and products from Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, is in the worst position, facing a record 145% interest rate.The markets have already partially priced in further escalation, but the current measures from the United States represent an actual tightening of fiscal policy, which increases the likelihood of a recession. On the other hand, China is expected to take stimulating steps, possibly lowering the benchmark interest rate after Easter. At the same time, a devaluation of the yuan is unlikely, since Beijing prefers to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.Eurozone: inflation is losing priority, the focus is on slowing growthOn Wednesday, the publication of the final data on inflation in the eurozone for March is expected. The consensus forecast assumes confirmation of the preliminary values, and the market is likely not to react to the release. Investors' attention has already shifted from the inflationary agenda to economic growth prospects and trade risks.On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The accompanying statement is likely to repeat the phrase that monetary policy is becoming "less restrictive." The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, is likely to focus on the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, but there will be no direct hints on the next steps on rates.Current events: signals from the USA and AsiaThe US president has announced new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In parallel, an investigation has been launched into national security issues in the semiconductor sector. At the same time, Trump stated the need for "flexibility" in trade issues. On the other hand, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping began his first foreign trip this year, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The visit underscores Beijing's desire to strengthen regional ties and forge a multipolar order.Over the weekend, the United States excluded a number of high—tech goods from retaliatory tariffs - smartphones, chip manufacturing equipment and some computers. This provided short-term relief for the American IT sector. However, as noted by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick, these goods may still be subject to future tariffs on semiconductors expected before May.Macroeconomic data: alarming signals from the United StatesA preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for April revealed a sharp deterioration in indicators. The index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, while expectations and current estimates also declined more than expected. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7%, which increases concerns about lost price control.Producer prices in March, on the contrary, showed a decrease — the PPI index dropped to 2.7% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than expected. This indicates that manufacturers did not have time to shift potential tariff costs to the final price in anticipation of new duties.Regional inflation: Swedish stabilityIn Sweden, the final March inflation data coincided with estimates: CPI at 0.5% YoY, CPIF at 2.3% YoY. Food inflation accelerated, while other components, including clothing, transportation, and housing, showed declines. Thus, inflation remains below the Riksbank's target level for the eighth month in a row, which supports the regulator's cautious position.Stock markets: optimism with caveatsUS stock markets ended Friday on a positive note — the S&P 500 index gained 1.8%, playing off the news about the exclusion of IT products from tariffs. Apple shares have become the engine of growth. European markets lagged behind in dynamics, but futures indicate a possible increase at the opening. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year, European stocks have been outperforming American stocks in terms of profitability.Bond and currency markets: dollar under pressure, U.S. yields risingThe EUR/USD pair briefly dropped below 1.13 on Friday, as the weakening of tariff threats supported the dollar. However, overall confidence in American assets remains in question. The yield gap between the US and Europe has become noticeably wider: the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 50 bps to 4.5%, while German securities remained virtually unchanged (2.55%). Scandinavian currencies remain vulnerable amid global capital flows and high uncertainty.ResultsMarkets continue to balance between the hope of stabilizing trade relations and the reality of increased global risks. Further steps by the United States on tariffs, China's reaction, and central bank policies will determine market movements in the coming ...

The EUR/GBP currency pair has made a significant technical breakthrough through a powerful resistance zone formed in the range of 0.8625–0.8645. The 0.8625 level previously acted as a key high reached in August last year, while 0.8645 has served as an important resistance since April 2024. A steady consolidation above these levels signals an increase in the upward momentum and the undermining of the previous "bearish" structure that dominated the market.The breakout of the resistance zone coincided with the active phase of wave c within the framework of an upward correction of type ABC, designated as correction 4 on the weekly chart. This formation has been developing since the end of September and has gained additional strength against the background of steady pressure on the British pound. Wave c is usually the most dynamic in three-wave correction models, which corresponds to the current upward acceleration.The pound's position continues to weaken amid growing concerns about a slowdown in the UK economy and uncertainty around the future policy of the Bank of England. At the same time, the eurozone is showing signs of relative stability, which increases investors' interest in the euro in crosses. This fundamental alignment of forces additionally contributes to the demand for EUR/GBP.From the point of view of John Murphy's technical analysis, the immediate target is the 0.8700 level, the former resistance zone recorded in December 2023. Reaching this mark seems likely while maintaining the current upward momentum. Stability above the broken zone of 0.8625–0.8645 will serve as a signal of the continuation of the trend. More ambitious goals may be overestimated in the event of a strengthening of wave c and a further deterioration of the pound's position in the market.Recommendations and risksUnder current conditions, the following scenarios are possible:Continued growth with an immediate target at 0.8700, provided it stays above 0.8645.A potential correction may be limited to the 0.8625–0.8600 zone, which now acts as a support.The loss of this support will call into question the strength of the upward structure, but at this stage such a scenario seems unlikely.Traders should carefully monitor the volatility in the pair, especially in light of future statements by the ECB and the Bank of England, which may significantly affect the short-term dynamics of the exchange ...

Germany: voting on fiscal packageA vote on a package of fiscal measures is scheduled in the Bundestag today, and the document is due to be considered in the Bundesrat on Friday. The package is expected to be approved.CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz declared unanimous support for the initiative, but there are risks that not all party members will vote in favor.In addition, the Free Voters of Bavaria party may not support the bill when voting in the Bundesrat.USA and Russia: negotiations on UkraineUS President Donald Trump has announced plans to hold talks with Russian President Putin on ending the conflict in Ukraine. The discussion is likely to touch on the issue of territorial concessions from Ukraine, as well as the transfer of control over energy facilities, which Trump has previously expressed. At the moment, Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day truce.Japan: Bank of Japan meetingThe Bank of Japan will end its two-day monetary policy meeting overnight. It is expected that the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged, as the unexpected increase in January, trade tensions and the strengthening of the yen have already had an impact on inflation. However, given the likely increase in wages this year, the Bank of Japan may find opportunities to raise rates further in the summer.Overview of key economic events and market newsThe situation in the Middle EastIsrael carried out its largest attack since the January truce, hitting several Hamas targets. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office said it was in response to the group's refusal to release the remaining hostages. Before the strike, the Israeli authorities held consultations with the White House administration.US retail Sales dataThe February statistics on retail sales in the United States gave mixed signals. The indicator of the control group increased by 1.0% (forecast: 0.3%) after falling by 0.9% in January. However, the overall indicator increased by only 0.2% mom after a 0.9% decrease in January. The exclusion of volatile categories improved the picture: the control group showed an increase of 1.0% against the previous decline of 1.0%. However, the effect of seasonal adjustments could artificially increase the growth rate, which confirms the decrease in the annual rate (+0.3% yoy versus +4.1%). After the release of these data, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined.The economic situation in ChinaThe January-February data showed a solid start to the year, although some weaknesses remain. Industrial production exceeded expectations, increasing by 5.9% YoY (forecast: 5.3%). This growth explains the recent rise in metal prices. A more important signal was the improvement in consumer demand: retail sales increased by 4% YoY (forecast: 3.8%). Despite the positive dynamics, the level remains below 7-8% of the pre-pandemic period. Boosting domestic demand is now a top priority for the Chinese government.Financial marketsStock indexesGlobal stock markets mostly showed growth. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes recorded their first two-day gains since the record close on February 19. However, macroeconomic statistics did not support this growth. The Dow Jones index rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 0.6%, the Nasdaq by 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 by 1.2%.Positive sentiment prevailed in Asian markets, with the Hang Seng index reaching a new high since the beginning of the year. At the same time, Indonesia's economy is experiencing difficulties, which has led to the sale of assets and the temporary suspension of trading. In Europe, futures are showing growth amid expectations of a vote in the Bundestag, while American futures are showing a decline.Bonds and the foreign exchange marketBond yields on both sides of the Atlantic declined ahead of the German vote and amid relatively stable market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.09, remaining close to last week's highs. EUR/SEK held above 11.00 as investors assessed the impact of increased government loans amid increased defense ...

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

Today, investors are focused on the final publication of Eurozone inflation data for January. This report will allow us to assess in detail the factors that caused the price increase at the beginning of the year, among which there are probably temporary effects.The Ifo Business Climate index in Germany for February is also expected to be published. It will be interesting to compare it with the PMI data released on Friday, which showed a slight increase in the composite index, mainly due to an improvement in the weakened industrial sector.In the second half of the week, the market's attention will shift to February inflation data from Germany, Spain and Italy. There will also be reports on the dynamics of wages and credit growth in the eurozone.In the United States, the Fed's main inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), is expected to be published on Friday. In addition, investors continue to monitor possible new tariff measures from the Donald Trump administration and geopolitical news.Results of the week: German elections and macroeconomic indicatorsThe markets reacted positively to the results of the German elections, which led to the formation of a two-party majority between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD). This will simplify the decision-making process compared to the previous government, which included three parties.Against the backdrop of the election, the euro strengthened by 0.6% in the Asian session, while DAX futures rose by 1.1%. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is likely to become the new chancellor, as his party received 28.6% of the vote. The formation of a coalition may take from one to two months.The election also increased the likelihood of a reform of budget constraints in Germany, allowing for increased borrowing. However, the impact on defense spending and support for Ukraine remains questionable: the extreme parties (AfD and Leftist) won 34.3% of the vote and may block some key initiatives requiring two-thirds of the votes in parliament.Friday was full of February Business Activity Indices (PMI). In the Eurozone, the composite PMI turned out to be lower than expected (50.2 versus the forecast of 50.5), mainly due to a decrease in the service sector (50.7 versus the expected 51.5). The industrial sector, on the contrary, showed a slight improvement (47.3 versus 47.0).In the UK, the picture was mixed: the manufacturing PMI turned out to be weaker than expected (46.4 versus 48.5), while the services sector exceeded expectations (51.1 versus 50.8). This left the composite index virtually unchanged (50.5). Retail sales data was also published: January growth was 1.2% year-on-year, which turned out to be higher than forecast (0.6%). However, the revised data for December was lowered, which smoothed out the effect of the positive surprise.In the US, the PMI picture resembled the European one: the industrial index continued to grow (51.6 versus 51.5), but the service sector declined sharply (49.7 versus 53.0), reaching its lowest level since January 2023. The internal components of the report showed a decrease in inflationary pressure: the price index for services fell to its lowest level since May 2020, while employment declined in both sectors. At the same time, production price indices and the order-to-inventory ratio continued to grow. The overall report looks dovish in the context of the Fed's policy.The geopolitical situation and financial marketsFor the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the possibility of resigning in order to achieve Ukraine's membership in NATO or long-term peace. This statement was made against the background of the truce negotiations in which the United States is involved in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Zelensky rejected the Trump administration's demand to provide the United States with a share of mining revenues in Ukraine.In the stock markets, an attempt at growth gave way to a decline. Global indexes fell 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies down 2.9%. European stocks, on the contrary, showed growth (Stoxx 600 +0.5%), which indicates a noticeable superiority of the region. Investors actively shifted into defensive assets, buying bonds and the utility sector, while technology and industrial companies came under pressure. Volatility (VIX index) rose above 18, the highest since early February.In the foreign exchange market, commodity currencies weakened, losing out to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar as market sentiment worsened towards the end of the week. The euro gained support against the background of the election results in Germany.U.S. Treasury bond yields declined amid weak data and expectations that government spending cuts could slow the economy more than expected. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds has narrowed, falling below 200 bps again. In Germany, the CDU/CSU victory, expected to be confirmed by the election results, creates the prerequisites for a coalition with the SPD and potentially a third party.Thus, the markets continue to search for a balance between economic data, political events and monetary policy ...