EUR/GBP Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

Focus on Germany: ZEW Sentiment index and expectationsToday, the key event on the European macroeconomic agenda will be the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany for March. According to the consensus forecast, the index value may drop significantly to 9.5 points, which is likely due to the ongoing turbulence in global trade and weak readings of economic indicators in the region. Recall that in February, the indicator of current economic conditions unexpectedly rose to 51.6 after a January jump from 26.0, ending a six-month downward trend. This time, the market expects only a slight improvement in the current estimate, to -86.8 from -87.6 last month.Sweden's spring budget: no market effectIn Sweden, the spring revision of the state budget will be presented at 8:00 Central European time. The main parameters of the project are already known: the volume of reforms is 11.5 billion crowns, while the central initiative will be the extension of tax benefits for housing repairs. Earlier in March, the government announced plans for a long-term increase in defense spending, but the final targets for them will be formed only in June, after the NATO summit, and they will not be included in the current budget version. For this reason, the impact of the document on financial markets will be minimal.United Kingdom: labor market dataAt 8:00 a.m., the UK will publish the employment report for February-March. Although this event traditionally has an impact on the pound, the current market agenda is focused on trade conflicts and interest rate policy, so the reaction to the publication may be limited.Overall market picture: cautious optimism amid tariff uncertaintyThe main attention of market participants remains focused on the escalation of tariff disputes. In the United States, Fed member Christopher Waller made a mild comment, noting that in the face of a significant slowdown in the economy due to high tariffs, he would support an earlier and large-scale rate cut. His words are especially important, given that Waller often reflects a consensus opinion within the FOMC.In China, exports increased by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding expectations (4.4%). However, given the upcoming tariff policy changes, these data are temporary. In April, we can expect a sharp decline in shipments, especially towards the United States. Against this background, the global trade picture remains uncertain.Financial markets: cautious recovery in risk appetiteStocks on global markets showed growth on Monday amid hopes that the peak of the tariff war may have already passed. European securities outperformed American ones, and defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones in terms of profitability for the third day in a row – a clear signal that investors are becoming more selective and are beginning to take into account structural risks.On Wall Street, all key indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 gained 0.8% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 1.1%. Positive sentiment prevailed in Asia on Tuesday, with European futures also showing growth.Dollar, Euro and yields: EUR/USD recoveryAfter falling to the level of 1.1300, the EUR/USD currency pair regained momentum amid easing concerns about the recession in the United States and signs of flexibility in the tariff policy of the White House. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also showed growth following the stock indexes. In Europe, yields on two-year swaps dropped below 2%, reflecting a general shift towards a soft policy. US government bond yields also declined, partly due to Waller's comments, which focused on the possible reaction of the Fed in the event of a slowdown in the labor market.Today, special attention will be paid to the "tax day" in the United States – the date when the maximum inflow of funds to the budget traditionally occurs, which can affect the short-term liquidity and dynamics of treasury ...

Escalation of the tariff war: the US and China continue their confrontationFinancial markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as investors closely monitor further actions by US President Donald Trump as part of the ongoing tariff confrontation. At the moment, most countries face a 10% duty on a wide range of exported goods, as well as a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and products from Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, is in the worst position, facing a record 145% interest rate.The markets have already partially priced in further escalation, but the current measures from the United States represent an actual tightening of fiscal policy, which increases the likelihood of a recession. On the other hand, China is expected to take stimulating steps, possibly lowering the benchmark interest rate after Easter. At the same time, a devaluation of the yuan is unlikely, since Beijing prefers to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.Eurozone: inflation is losing priority, the focus is on slowing growthOn Wednesday, the publication of the final data on inflation in the eurozone for March is expected. The consensus forecast assumes confirmation of the preliminary values, and the market is likely not to react to the release. Investors' attention has already shifted from the inflationary agenda to economic growth prospects and trade risks.On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The accompanying statement is likely to repeat the phrase that monetary policy is becoming "less restrictive." The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, is likely to focus on the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, but there will be no direct hints on the next steps on rates.Current events: signals from the USA and AsiaThe US president has announced new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In parallel, an investigation has been launched into national security issues in the semiconductor sector. At the same time, Trump stated the need for "flexibility" in trade issues. On the other hand, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping began his first foreign trip this year, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The visit underscores Beijing's desire to strengthen regional ties and forge a multipolar order.Over the weekend, the United States excluded a number of high—tech goods from retaliatory tariffs - smartphones, chip manufacturing equipment and some computers. This provided short-term relief for the American IT sector. However, as noted by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick, these goods may still be subject to future tariffs on semiconductors expected before May.Macroeconomic data: alarming signals from the United StatesA preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for April revealed a sharp deterioration in indicators. The index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, while expectations and current estimates also declined more than expected. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7%, which increases concerns about lost price control.Producer prices in March, on the contrary, showed a decrease — the PPI index dropped to 2.7% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than expected. This indicates that manufacturers did not have time to shift potential tariff costs to the final price in anticipation of new duties.Regional inflation: Swedish stabilityIn Sweden, the final March inflation data coincided with estimates: CPI at 0.5% YoY, CPIF at 2.3% YoY. Food inflation accelerated, while other components, including clothing, transportation, and housing, showed declines. Thus, inflation remains below the Riksbank's target level for the eighth month in a row, which supports the regulator's cautious position.Stock markets: optimism with caveatsUS stock markets ended Friday on a positive note — the S&P 500 index gained 1.8%, playing off the news about the exclusion of IT products from tariffs. Apple shares have become the engine of growth. European markets lagged behind in dynamics, but futures indicate a possible increase at the opening. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year, European stocks have been outperforming American stocks in terms of profitability.Bond and currency markets: dollar under pressure, U.S. yields risingThe EUR/USD pair briefly dropped below 1.13 on Friday, as the weakening of tariff threats supported the dollar. However, overall confidence in American assets remains in question. The yield gap between the US and Europe has become noticeably wider: the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 50 bps to 4.5%, while German securities remained virtually unchanged (2.55%). Scandinavian currencies remain vulnerable amid global capital flows and high uncertainty.ResultsMarkets continue to balance between the hope of stabilizing trade relations and the reality of increased global risks. Further steps by the United States on tariffs, China's reaction, and central bank policies will determine market movements in the coming ...

The EUR/GBP currency pair has made a significant technical breakthrough through a powerful resistance zone formed in the range of 0.8625–0.8645. The 0.8625 level previously acted as a key high reached in August last year, while 0.8645 has served as an important resistance since April 2024. A steady consolidation above these levels signals an increase in the upward momentum and the undermining of the previous "bearish" structure that dominated the market.The breakout of the resistance zone coincided with the active phase of wave c within the framework of an upward correction of type ABC, designated as correction 4 on the weekly chart. This formation has been developing since the end of September and has gained additional strength against the background of steady pressure on the British pound. Wave c is usually the most dynamic in three-wave correction models, which corresponds to the current upward acceleration.The pound's position continues to weaken amid growing concerns about a slowdown in the UK economy and uncertainty around the future policy of the Bank of England. At the same time, the eurozone is showing signs of relative stability, which increases investors' interest in the euro in crosses. This fundamental alignment of forces additionally contributes to the demand for EUR/GBP.From the point of view of John Murphy's technical analysis, the immediate target is the 0.8700 level, the former resistance zone recorded in December 2023. Reaching this mark seems likely while maintaining the current upward momentum. Stability above the broken zone of 0.8625–0.8645 will serve as a signal of the continuation of the trend. More ambitious goals may be overestimated in the event of a strengthening of wave c and a further deterioration of the pound's position in the market.Recommendations and risksUnder current conditions, the following scenarios are possible:Continued growth with an immediate target at 0.8700, provided it stays above 0.8645.A potential correction may be limited to the 0.8625–0.8600 zone, which now acts as a support.The loss of this support will call into question the strength of the upward structure, but at this stage such a scenario seems unlikely.Traders should carefully monitor the volatility in the pair, especially in light of future statements by the ECB and the Bank of England, which may significantly affect the short-term dynamics of the exchange ...

Germany: voting on fiscal packageA vote on a package of fiscal measures is scheduled in the Bundestag today, and the document is due to be considered in the Bundesrat on Friday. The package is expected to be approved.CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz declared unanimous support for the initiative, but there are risks that not all party members will vote in favor.In addition, the Free Voters of Bavaria party may not support the bill when voting in the Bundesrat.USA and Russia: negotiations on UkraineUS President Donald Trump has announced plans to hold talks with Russian President Putin on ending the conflict in Ukraine. The discussion is likely to touch on the issue of territorial concessions from Ukraine, as well as the transfer of control over energy facilities, which Trump has previously expressed. At the moment, Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day truce.Japan: Bank of Japan meetingThe Bank of Japan will end its two-day monetary policy meeting overnight. It is expected that the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged, as the unexpected increase in January, trade tensions and the strengthening of the yen have already had an impact on inflation. However, given the likely increase in wages this year, the Bank of Japan may find opportunities to raise rates further in the summer.Overview of key economic events and market newsThe situation in the Middle EastIsrael carried out its largest attack since the January truce, hitting several Hamas targets. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office said it was in response to the group's refusal to release the remaining hostages. Before the strike, the Israeli authorities held consultations with the White House administration.US retail Sales dataThe February statistics on retail sales in the United States gave mixed signals. The indicator of the control group increased by 1.0% (forecast: 0.3%) after falling by 0.9% in January. However, the overall indicator increased by only 0.2% mom after a 0.9% decrease in January. The exclusion of volatile categories improved the picture: the control group showed an increase of 1.0% against the previous decline of 1.0%. However, the effect of seasonal adjustments could artificially increase the growth rate, which confirms the decrease in the annual rate (+0.3% yoy versus +4.1%). After the release of these data, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined.The economic situation in ChinaThe January-February data showed a solid start to the year, although some weaknesses remain. Industrial production exceeded expectations, increasing by 5.9% YoY (forecast: 5.3%). This growth explains the recent rise in metal prices. A more important signal was the improvement in consumer demand: retail sales increased by 4% YoY (forecast: 3.8%). Despite the positive dynamics, the level remains below 7-8% of the pre-pandemic period. Boosting domestic demand is now a top priority for the Chinese government.Financial marketsStock indexesGlobal stock markets mostly showed growth. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes recorded their first two-day gains since the record close on February 19. However, macroeconomic statistics did not support this growth. The Dow Jones index rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 0.6%, the Nasdaq by 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 by 1.2%.Positive sentiment prevailed in Asian markets, with the Hang Seng index reaching a new high since the beginning of the year. At the same time, Indonesia's economy is experiencing difficulties, which has led to the sale of assets and the temporary suspension of trading. In Europe, futures are showing growth amid expectations of a vote in the Bundestag, while American futures are showing a decline.Bonds and the foreign exchange marketBond yields on both sides of the Atlantic declined ahead of the German vote and amid relatively stable market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.09, remaining close to last week's highs. EUR/SEK held above 11.00 as investors assessed the impact of increased government loans amid increased defense ...

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

Today, investors are focused on the final publication of Eurozone inflation data for January. This report will allow us to assess in detail the factors that caused the price increase at the beginning of the year, among which there are probably temporary effects.The Ifo Business Climate index in Germany for February is also expected to be published. It will be interesting to compare it with the PMI data released on Friday, which showed a slight increase in the composite index, mainly due to an improvement in the weakened industrial sector.In the second half of the week, the market's attention will shift to February inflation data from Germany, Spain and Italy. There will also be reports on the dynamics of wages and credit growth in the eurozone.In the United States, the Fed's main inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), is expected to be published on Friday. In addition, investors continue to monitor possible new tariff measures from the Donald Trump administration and geopolitical news.Results of the week: German elections and macroeconomic indicatorsThe markets reacted positively to the results of the German elections, which led to the formation of a two-party majority between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD). This will simplify the decision-making process compared to the previous government, which included three parties.Against the backdrop of the election, the euro strengthened by 0.6% in the Asian session, while DAX futures rose by 1.1%. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is likely to become the new chancellor, as his party received 28.6% of the vote. The formation of a coalition may take from one to two months.The election also increased the likelihood of a reform of budget constraints in Germany, allowing for increased borrowing. However, the impact on defense spending and support for Ukraine remains questionable: the extreme parties (AfD and Leftist) won 34.3% of the vote and may block some key initiatives requiring two-thirds of the votes in parliament.Friday was full of February Business Activity Indices (PMI). In the Eurozone, the composite PMI turned out to be lower than expected (50.2 versus the forecast of 50.5), mainly due to a decrease in the service sector (50.7 versus the expected 51.5). The industrial sector, on the contrary, showed a slight improvement (47.3 versus 47.0).In the UK, the picture was mixed: the manufacturing PMI turned out to be weaker than expected (46.4 versus 48.5), while the services sector exceeded expectations (51.1 versus 50.8). This left the composite index virtually unchanged (50.5). Retail sales data was also published: January growth was 1.2% year-on-year, which turned out to be higher than forecast (0.6%). However, the revised data for December was lowered, which smoothed out the effect of the positive surprise.In the US, the PMI picture resembled the European one: the industrial index continued to grow (51.6 versus 51.5), but the service sector declined sharply (49.7 versus 53.0), reaching its lowest level since January 2023. The internal components of the report showed a decrease in inflationary pressure: the price index for services fell to its lowest level since May 2020, while employment declined in both sectors. At the same time, production price indices and the order-to-inventory ratio continued to grow. The overall report looks dovish in the context of the Fed's policy.The geopolitical situation and financial marketsFor the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the possibility of resigning in order to achieve Ukraine's membership in NATO or long-term peace. This statement was made against the background of the truce negotiations in which the United States is involved in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Zelensky rejected the Trump administration's demand to provide the United States with a share of mining revenues in Ukraine.In the stock markets, an attempt at growth gave way to a decline. Global indexes fell 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies down 2.9%. European stocks, on the contrary, showed growth (Stoxx 600 +0.5%), which indicates a noticeable superiority of the region. Investors actively shifted into defensive assets, buying bonds and the utility sector, while technology and industrial companies came under pressure. Volatility (VIX index) rose above 18, the highest since early February.In the foreign exchange market, commodity currencies weakened, losing out to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar as market sentiment worsened towards the end of the week. The euro gained support against the background of the election results in Germany.U.S. Treasury bond yields declined amid weak data and expectations that government spending cuts could slow the economy more than expected. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds has narrowed, falling below 200 bps again. In Germany, the CDU/CSU victory, expected to be confirmed by the election results, creates the prerequisites for a coalition with the SPD and potentially a third party.Thus, the markets continue to search for a balance between economic data, political events and monetary policy ...

PMI indices for February in most major economies are expected to be published today. Special attention will be paid to data on the Eurozone. In January, the manufacturing PMI rose from 45.1 to 46.6, which was a positive signal after the weak second half of 2024. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 46.8 in February, while the services PMI is expected to rise to 51.6.In Denmark, data on the business confidence index for February will be released today. Despite the decline in January, forecasts point to moderate growth in 2025, as well as an increase in the number of new jobs. Employment data for December 2024 will also be published, which show steady growth over the past year.Federal elections will be held in Germany this weekend. The key theme of the candidates is the recovery of a weakening economy, which makes the outcome of the election important for future growth. The most likely outcome is a coalition between the CDU/CSU Conservatives and the Social Democrats (SPD) or the Greens. In both cases, Friedrich Merz from CDU is likely to become chancellor.There is a 50% chance of debt brake reform, which will increase the structural deficit and boost GDP growth in the coming years. If the reform is not implemented, a similar fiscal incentive can be achieved through targeted extra-budgetary funds.Economic and market newsJapan: The core consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food turned out to be slightly higher than expected, amounting to 3.2% in annual terms. This strengthens the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the regulator, noted that additional rate cuts depend on an improvement in inflationary dynamics, and also indicated a willingness to increase the purchase of government bonds in the event of an increase in long-term interest rates.Denmark: The consumer confidence index dropped to -14.5 in February from -11.7 in January. The weak data is linked to concerns about the economy and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's policies. However, citizens' personal finances are improving due to rising real wages, a strong labor market, and a stable housing market.Denmark's GDP grew by 1.6% in the fourth quarter and 3.6% for the whole of 2024, mainly due to the pharmaceutical industry. Excluding this sector, growth would have been 1.8%, while private consumption increased by only 0.9%.Eurozone: The consumer confidence index rose to -13.6 in February (forecast: -14.0), which was the second consecutive month with an improvement in the indicator. However, confidence remains well below the October level. Consumers are concerned about the possible impact of Trump's policies on Europe, despite improved economic conditions such as rising real incomes and lower interest rates.Stock, bond and currency marketsStocks: Risk appetite continues to decline. European indices started the day with growth, but declined after the opening of trading in the United States. The S&P and Stoxx lost 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 lost 0.9%. This is the first decline in European stocks since early January. Convincing macroeconomic data confirming Europe's recovery is needed to continue the rally.Bonds: Fed official Kugler made hawkish statements, noting that employment risks have decreased and inflation remains high. Today's PMI data may affect expectations regarding future ECB decisions.Currencies: The US dollar weakened against most G10 currencies, despite a decrease in risk appetite. The EUR/USD pair approached 1.05, while USD/JPY dropped below 150 and reached its lowest level since the beginning of the year. EUR/GBP is consolidating below 0.83, while EUR/SEK remains below ...

Today, investors' attention is focused on the most important macroeconomic and political events. In Sweden, the results of a survey of inflation expectations conducted by the Origo group (formerly Prospera) are being published. The Riksbank focuses on the need to keep long-term (5–year) inflation expectations close to the target of 2%, which has been stable in the range of 1.9-2.1% since the beginning of 2024. We do not expect any sharp deviations from these values this month.In the UK, inflation data for January is on the agenda. Both the general price level and the base indicator are expected to rise, which is facilitated by higher prices for fuel and educational services. Service inflation is projected to rise to 5.1% against the expected 5.0%. This will be the last inflation report before the March meeting of the Bank of England, where markets do not attach much probability to a rate cut. Analysts believe that the next interest rate cut is possible only in May.This morning, China is publishing data on new home prices, which serve as an important indicator of the state of the real estate market. Recent reports show that the rate of price decline has slowed, which is in line with other indicators indicating a moderate recovery in housing demand. We expect prices to remain at about the same level in January as in December, indicating market stabilization.Market news and recent eventsIn the United States, President Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of 25% on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. Although no specific date has been announced for the start of tariffs, he also confirmed the launch of tariffs on steel and aluminum from March 12. The markets will try to assess the sincerity of these statements today.Regarding the situation in Ukraine, American and Russian officials held their first meeting in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the war – without Ukraine's participation. Both sides agreed to lay the foundations for future cooperation, with discussions on territorial arrangements and security guarantees expected in the future. Putin's foreign policy adviser noted that the United States and Russia are working on preparing a meeting between Trump and Putin.Sweden has published a detailed inflation report for January, which showed annual CPI growth slightly below expectations – 0.9% against the projected 1.0%, with a monthly change of 0.0%. At the same time, the CPIF baseline indicator excluding energy confirmed a preliminary value of 2.7% per annum, which may signal an increase in inflationary pressure.The UK has released a report on the labor market for December and January, where the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, and the number of people employed exceeded expectations, largely due to data on the public sector. This indicates that the Bank of England is likely to continue its cautious easing policy.In Germany, the February ZEW index rose above expectations, reaching -88.5, the highest in four months, while expectations for future market improvements increased to 26.0, significantly exceeding the forecast of 20.0. These data indicate the continuation of positive surprises in the German economy, despite the general stagnation, which, in turn, is a signal of stability.Market analysisStock markets continued their moderate growth. Yesterday, assets increased slightly despite the fact that the American stock exchanges were closed. European markets added about 0.5%, setting a new closing record for the year, and shares in the defense sector rose especially noticeably – Swedish SAAB recorded an increase of 16% per day and 30% per week. Markets in Asia are also showing strong positions, with South Korean stocks up 2% and some countries seeing significant annual gains of up to 10%. US index futures are slightly higher today.The debt market in Europe is experiencing an increase in government spending on defense and assistance to Ukraine. The EU is considering various financing mechanisms for these costs, which has caused government bond yields to rise, although spreads between peripheral and central countries remain narrow, indicating there is no clear desire to flee to safety.In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen showed the best dynamics among the G10 currencies, which was facilitated by the strong growth of the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. EUR/USD is holding just below 1.05, while USD/CAD has stabilized around 1.42 following the release of Canada's January CPI, in line with expectations. The EUR/GBP exchange rate dropped to 0.83, and the following changes are observed in the Scandinavian region: EUR/SEK dropped below 11.22, and EUR/NOK – below 11.64. These movements indicate continued pressure on regional ...